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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-09-22T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-22T07:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17801/-1
CME Note: Faint CME only seen COR2A in SW. Possible source: filament eruption at ~S25W12 seen in AIA 304 ~2021-09-22T05:00Z, accompanied by dimming and post-eruptive loops(AIA 193 and EUVIA 195). Originally logged in CME Scoreboard with observed time of 2021-09-22T05:0Z, changed to reflect DONKI entry time 2021-09-22T07:53Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-26T12:47Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM
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Most pr. speed =  287.0 km/sec
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      336.265
Acceleration:      0.399828
Duration in seconds:        363264.37
Duration in days:        4.2044487
t2 is negative
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Acceleration of the CME:   0.40 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  481.5 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/09/2021 Time: 12:47 UT
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Lead Time: 48.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-09-24T12:00Z

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